Euro model: harsh cold, and snow?

[rvawxspotter]

Hope you enjoyed the mild weather while it lasted. Most of the models are showing a major outbreak of cold air after next weekend and into next week. The ECMWF (the European model) is the most aggressive, showing the polar vortex reaching as far south as the Texas panhandle.

awesomescreenshot.com/06b5g080f

The colors on this map would translate to surface temperatures in the low teens in the blue shading to single digits in the purple shadings. Coinciding with this cold outbreak is a possible snow threat for the January 11-13th time frame. Euro model has been showing a low pressure system moving across the deep south, from Texas then into southern Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia...then turning up the coast towards New England. The exact track has been shifting around slightly (though not drastically), but the ECMWF has been consistent in showing this scenario.

awesomescreenshot.com/0175g0g35

Will have to see what the 0z Euro shows when it updates at 1:30am. Though I'll probably be in bed by then ;D

[thewxobserver]

I think that low will track along the coast like the one from Christmas weekend. Not ready to break out the snow shovel just yet. But that is a ways out, so worth keeping an eye on.

[rvawxspotter]

I think this is going to be another one where we won't know until the last minute. The Euro has started shifting around. The 12z run from today (1/4) has the low to the south moving through Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, Georgia then staying south and moving off the FL coast. The upside is that the Euro does have a good handle on the strength of the polar vortex coming down out of Canada, so in a way the Euro is just being realistic. On the other hand, I'd love to see that low make a left turn and head for Hatteras

[thewxobserver]

Just saw the first VDOT truck loaded with salt for the roads. Are they expecting something I am not.

Virginia Department of Emergency Management, www.facebook.com/VAemergency

said the following today: A low pressure system developing across the Northwest US will bring snow showers tomorrow night through Friday night, 7 January for areas of Southwest and West Central VA with snow accumulations from 2-4 inches possible. Accumulating snow will also be possible across areas of Northwest/Northern VA and Central/Southeast VA tomorrow night into Saturday, 8 January.

Guess I missed something.

[rvawxspotter]

Wow. I didn't see that at all on any of the models. Even the GFS, which tends to overdo it on precip, isn't showing much QPF with this thing. Then again, I've been more wrapped up in looking at next week's situation.

[rvawxspotter]

Glancing at the radar this morning, it looks to me that what really did this storm in, besides how long it took for the air to saturate before the storm reached Virginia, was the dual low pressure systems that formed. Glancing at the radar it looks like the other low that formed out in the midwest (which we would have needed to phase with the coastal low) ended up stealing the moisture away from us.